You get the power in the capital – this axion is now apparently also grasped in Turkey. The riots are shifting to Ankara; thereby, the demands of the protesters are still basically negativistic – the dismissal of corrupt officials, the end of certain reforms and Erdogan’s departure. It is tough to see something constructive in it.
The ideological impasse of the protesters is becoming apparent: an alternative to the reforms of the Islamists from the (Justice and Development Party / AKP) would be a return to the pure, “orthodox” Kemalism. Now this, in turn, relies to a large extent on the efforts of an integration into Europe and this direction is without any doubt since a certain number of years no longer practical. The most of what would still be there for Turkey today is not current.
Therefore, a client or at least a secret backer of the riots emerges at the scene: the remaining military and intelligence authorities, besides opposition Kemalists, who were not yet replaced by the Islamists. The outer sympathizers have also manifested themselves already: the countries of the “West”.
Many of the governments or the highest state officials in Europe and the U.S. have shown some sympathy towards the protesters and called on the Turkish government to compromise. Thereby, the all-or-nothing demands of the demonstrators leave no room for any negotiation or compromise.
In fact, Erdogan has now three ways to end the ongoing revolt.
The first would be to give up and resign. What is obviously excluded.
The second option would be to mobilize his supporters and to also send to the streets. The risk of this alternative is obvious: this threatens with a situation that is often referred to in the media as “civil war-like unrest”.
The third option would be a Turkish version of Tiananmen (Gate of Heavenly Peace). Here, Erdogan is not able to fully rely on the Turkish army, and in addition, this would be the final break of the Turkish Islamists and the West.
But Erdogan has no other allies anymore after his catastrophic mistake to let himself be drawn into the war against Syria. A situation like the situation in which Ivan Tsarevich or Ilya Muromets once stood.
Another unknown variable of this equation would be the fighting and armed militia in Syria. More specifically, the armed men, who are currently located on the territory of Turkey. In addition the successful operations of the Syrian army in the north can lead in a very short time to the situation that undefeated respectively fleeing rebel groups push back to Turkey – and among them are not only flaming revolutionaries, but rather – and mainly – just bandit elements. But both factions can be animated to go to war with whoever for an apple & egg.
While the bandits just destroy and kill for money, the Turkish Islamists should be at least schismatics for the freaks of the al-Nusra Front – a jihad would be definitely on the agenda against these Turkish Islamists.
Another small detail: the Kurds. The strange truce to the acclamation by Ocalan will not last long when the Kurds have once perceived weakness and vacillation on the Turkish side. This could lead to the situation that the only single joker of Erdogan in his relationship to the generals – namely, the pacification of the Kurds – dissolve in a very short time.
Overall, it leads to an very ugly situation for the JDP (AKP) – namely, to choose the lesser evil of all.
Erdogan obviously needs to go through it, because to kick the can down the road will probably no more work at the beginning of the ““.