“Given the complicated situation that arises since today in the Golan Heights, we could replace the Austrian contingent, which withdraws from this region, at the dividing line between the Israeli forces and the Syrian army,” said Putin at a meeting with senior Russian military in Moscow on Friday. “Of course, only in the case when the states of the region are interested in this and if the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon asks for it.”
Putin’s offer can be described as unexpectedly without any deduction and actually even as sensational. Especially in view at which point the offer was made and that the offer just comes from the first man in the state – so no subordinated guy was charged with this duty.
The almost instantaneous, and primarily positive response from the UN officials, who virtually have not asked for a time for consideration, in order to first roll with their eyes and then to retreat for consultations, however, just testifies that this first affectively translucent statement was well coordinated and, for sure, agreed in advance. And this should encourage us now to consider the offer of the Russian president in detail.
It seems clear that such a proposal can hardly have been made without a consultation with the United States. Not because Russia would be committed to report as an alleged vassal to his master, but due to very simple logic. What would be the sense of it, when the first man in the state announces something, that then would have to be denied by a lower state official?
However, at least, this initiative is coordinated with President Assad. For exactly the same reasons. However, whether Israel was informed in advance is an open question.
The situation that Israel will give its agreement that the previous Potemkin peacekeepers from secondary countries, which give in to a bunch of bandits at the first opportunity, to be replaced by others, is actually to doubt.
For Israel is an action-incompetent UN contingent in the region of the Golan Heights from an absolute advantage because there is a good reason for it to enter the demilitarized zone at any moment and to justify this just by the incapacity of UN troops and the activities of the FSA (or the Syrian government forces, that does not matter in this case).
So, it would mean if you want to adjust such an offer in advance with Israel, you would at least just trigger a slow process because the Israelis would certainly lengthen this matter and provide a variety of conditions and demands. It is therefore not unreasonable to assume that they have only learned about Putin’s offer from the newspapers. It sure makes no sense to guess about it.
For the region, such a changing of the guard would at least rescind the “Golan problem” once and for all. And indeed in the sense, that it would then become more difficult to engage Israel and Syria in a war against each other.
This would mean for Russia that it could even solve another problem in addition to the functions of a peacekeeping contingent . namely, at best, the prevention of the return of the there warring Islamists who are from Russia. It is in Russian interest that they remain once and for ever on respectively in the soil of the “blessed Sham”.
This would certainly go beyond the powers of a UN peacekeeping contingent, and so, it would not only need the pious wish here, but also a will. And the cooperation with the Syrians. But to not use such an opportunity would be relatively stupid.
However, the inclusion of Russian units in the Syrian war would mean, even just as a UN peacekeeping contingent, to triple the caution. The alleged approval of the U.S. leads to the point to assume a hitch here.
The Americans have never made so easy gifts. It would be in their power to trigger any provocation in the style of South Ossetia in August 2008 and thus, to transform Russia well-covered by the media from a peacekeeping force into an aggressor. With the instantaneous point in time of a possible development of such a situation that is not predictable.